NEURACAP
Company ReportSep 25, 2026 · 11 pages · Free to read

Automatic Data Processing Company Valuation & Strategic Insights — September 2026

A company valuation report on Automatic Data Processing (ADP), covering trading and precedent-transaction methods, market pricing, operating benchmarks and strategic options, for boards, investors and advisors evaluating ADP's premium multiple as of September 25, 2026.

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Key figures

16.1x
EV/CY2026E EBITDA multiple
vs 11.2x peer median
$245.90
Implied median share price
vs $263.11 last price
29.2%
CY2026E EBITDA margin
vs 29.5% peer average
$21.95
FY2026 revenue
billions, FY2026

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COMPANY VALUATION & STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

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AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING, INC. (ADP) · INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › HUMAN RESOURCE AND EMPLOYMENT SERVICES

Automatic Data Processing: A Premium Earned on Durability, Not on Growth

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), as of Sep 25, 2026: what the trading, peer and precedent methods imply, how the market read the year, and the operating options in front of the board.

Sep 25, 2026 snapshot

Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target.

ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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Executive summary

ADP trades at 16.1x EV/CY2026E EBITDA against an 11.2x peer median, a premium tied to the durability of its payroll book rather than to growth or margin, which sit near peer averages. Valuation methods imply a median share price of $245.90, a -7% gap to the $263.11 last price, while precedent HCM transactions show buyers paying up to 22.8x for subscription platforms and far less for staffing-exposed assets. The premium holds only if FY2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6% is delivered as guided.

Key findings

  • ADP's 16.1x EV/EBITDA sits well above the 11.2x peer median, despite average growth and
  • ADP: Valuation methods imply $204.58–$270.06; the $263.11 share price sits inside that
  • ADP: Buyers pay up to 22.8x for subscription HCM platforms, far less for staffing-exposed
  • ADP's premium depends on delivering FY2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6% as guided.

What each page shows

The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.

  1. 01
    COMPANY VALUATION & STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

    AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING, INC. (ADP) · INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › HUMAN RESOURCE AND EMPLOYMENT SERVICES

    Cover page introducing the ADP valuation and strategic insights deck, dated September 25, 2026.

    We're opening with Automatic Data Processing's valuation and strategic insights as of September 25, 2026. This deck walks through what the valuation methods imply, how the market has priced the shares, where ADP ranks operationally, what buyers have paid for comparable assets, and the strategic options ahead.

    Everything on this page

    COMPANY VALUATION & STRATEGIC INSIGHTS AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING, INC. (ADP) · INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › HUMAN RESOURCE AND EMPLOYMENT SERVICES Automatic Data Processing: A Premium Earned on Durability, Not on Growth Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), as of Sep 25, 2026: what the trading, peer and precedent methods imply, how the market read the year, and the operating options in front of the board. Sep 25, 2026 snapshot Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

  2. 02
    THE BOTTOM LINE

    ADP Earns a Premium Multiple on the Durability of Its Payroll Book, Not on Growth

    States the deck's central conclusion that ADP's premium multiple reflects durability rather than growth.

    Our headline finding is that ADP earns its premium multiple on the durability of its payroll book, not on faster growth. We drew this conclusion from the valuation methods, the market record, operating benchmarks and the precedent transaction record, all as of September 25, 2026. This is the lens the rest of the deck applies, so keep durability — not growth — front of mind as we move through the evidence.

    Everything on this page

    THE BOTTOM LINE ADP Earns a Premium Multiple on the Durability of Its Payroll Book, Not on Growth Automatic Data Processing (ADP) · Sep 25, 2026 · valuation methods, market record, operating benchmarks, precedent transactions Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2 1 ADP's Premium Multiple Is Paid for Durability, Not for Faster Growth ADP trades at 16.1x EV/CY2026E EBITDA against a peer median of 11.2x, with CY2026E revenue growth of 6.3% against a 6.0% peer average and a 29.2% EBITDA margin against 29.5%. The premium attaches to the installed base, not to either operating axis. 2 ADP's Shares Sit Above What Peer Multiples Imply and Below the Precedent Record The comparable set implies $186.98 – $228.53 on 2026E non-GAAP P/E and $163.51 – $199.85 on EV/2026E EBITDA, while precedent EV/LTM EBITDA multiples imply $245.47 – $300.01. The methods' median of $245.90 sits against the $263.11 share price, a -7% gap. 3 ADP's FY2026 Delivery Is What Has Held the Premium in Place FY2026 revenue was $21.95 billion with diluted EPS of $10.94 and adjusted EBIT of $5.9 billion, and reported revenue landed at or above the recorded estimate in all six measured quarters. Management has forecast FY2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6%; the FY2026 record is consistent with that pace. 4 A Fifth of ADP's Reported Revenue Carries No Margin, and Float Income Follows Rates The FY2026 filings put PEO benefits pass-throughs at $4.61 billion, roughly 21% of revenue at zero margin, and interest on funds held for clients at $1.35 billion, about 6%. Net revenue quality, not gross billings, is what the EBITDA multiple capitalises. $245.90 Median of the valuation methods vs the $263.11 share price — a -7% gap the deck explains 16.1x EV / CY2026E EBITDA — where ADP trades peer median 11.2x — the multiple gap is the sentiment story 13.3x Median EV / LTM EBITDA paid for control across 7 precedent transactions — vs 16.1x in the market today 6.4% CY2026E revenue growth at a 29.2% EBITDA margin — the profile the market is pricing

  3. 03
    FOOTBALL FIELD VALUATION

    ADP: The Peer Set and the Buyer Record Disagree, and the Shares Sit Between Them

    Shows a valuation range comparing peer-based methods, precedent transactions, and the current share price.

    This football field lays out each method's median multiple, plus or minus ten percent, applied to ADP's own financials as of September 25, 2026. The peer set and the buyer record point in different directions, and the current share price sits between them. That gap is the central tension we resolve on the following pages.

    Everything on this page

    FOOTBALL FIELD VALUATION ADP: The Peer Set and the Buyer Record Disagree, and the Shares Sit Between Them Sep 25, 2026 snapshot · each bar = the method's median multiple ±10%, applied to the company's own financials · Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 Taken together the methods produce a median implied share price of $245.90, a -7% gap to the $263.11 price, with the central band at $204.58 – $270.06. $0 $100 $200 $300 Multiples teal line = median of the valuation methods (-7% vs the share price) · amber line = current share price · shaded band = middle half of the methods TRADING 52-Week High-Low $188.16 $294.35 Analyst target range $225.00 $310.00 PUBLIC COMPARABLES EV / 2026E EBITDA $163.51 $199.85 10.04x – 12.27x EV / 2027E EBITDA $164.98 $201.64 9.35x – 11.43x EV / 2025A Revenue $233.22 $285.04 4.42x – 5.40x EV / 2026E Revenue $221.31 $270.49 3.95x – 4.82x EV / 2027E Revenue $212.34 $259.52 3.58x – 4.38x P/E (2026E Non-GAAP EPS) $186.98 $228.53 15.98x – 19.53x P/E (2027E Non-GAAP EPS) $181.27 $221.55 14.17x – 17.31x PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS EV / LTM EBITDA $245.47 $300.01 16.70x – 20.41x EV / NTM EBITDA $240.63 $294.11 14.70x – 17.96x EV / LTM Revenue $261.39 $319.47 4.95x – 6.05x EV / NTM Revenue $278.16 $339.98 4.95x – 6.05x Methods median $245.90 Share price $263.11

  4. 04
    MARKET PRICES & THE FILING RECORD

    ADP: Better Quarters All Year, a Lower Share Price — the Multiple Did the Moving

    Plots ADP's weekly share price over the past year against the quarterly filing record.

    Over the year from September 28, 2025 to September 25, 2026, ADP's shares ranged from $188.79 to $291.54 and last closed at $263.11. We've marked the filings that map to each notable move, and where no filing explains a move, we say so plainly. The pattern across the year is stronger quarters paired with a lower share price — so the multiple, not the fundamentals, did the moving.

    Everything on this page

    MARKET PRICES & THE FILING RECORD ADP: Better Quarters All Year, a Lower Share Price — the Multiple Did the Moving Weekly closes, Sep 28, 2025 – Sep 25, 2026 · range $188.79 – $291.54 · last $263.11 · numbered markers = the filings below Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Move-to-event links use calibrated language; where no filing explains a move, the page says so. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4 $200 $250 $300 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 2026-03 2026-05 2026-07 2026-08 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Weekly closes moved from $291.54 to $263.11 over Sep 28, 2025 – Sep 25, 2026, a -10% change with a low of $188.79. 1 Nov 2, 2025 · Earnings Release & Result of Operations Filed 8-K - 2025-10-29 - ADP reported Q1 FY26 results with revenue of $5.2 billion (7% YoY), net earnings of $1.0 billion, and reaffirmed… 2 Nov 23, 2025 · Shareholder Meeting, Proxy & Voting Matter Filed N-CSR - 2025-11-17 - ADP filed an 8-K reporting the results of its November 12, 2025 annual shareholder meeting, including election of… 3 Feb 1, 2026 · Earnings Release & Result of Operations Filed 8-K - 2026-01-28 - ADP reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $5.4 billion (up 6%), net earnings of $1.1 billion (up 10%), and raised its… 4 May 3, 2026 · Earnings Release & Result of Operations Filed 8-K - 2026-04-29 - ADP reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $5.9 billion (up 7%) and net earnings of $1.4 billion (up 9%), and raised its… 5 May 10, 2026 · Debt, Credit Facility & Other Financing Filed 8-K - 2026-05-07 - ADP entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $1 billion of 5% senior notes due 2036 and filed the… 6 Jun 28, 2026 · Debt, Credit Facility & Other Financing Filed 8-K - 2026-06-26 - On June 26, 2026 ADP entered into a $5.7 billion 364-day revolving credit facility and a $3.5 billion five-year…

  5. 05
    PERFORMANCE METRICS

    ADP's Forecasts Are Paid for on Margin Expansion, with Growth Held Steady

    Charts ADP's revenue, growth and margin levels from CY2025 actuals through CY2028 estimates.

    We show the published level alongside growth and margin from CY2025 through CY2028E, with estimate years marked. The pattern is that forecasts lean on margin expansion while growth is held roughly steady. That distinction matters for how the market is pricing ADP's forward delivery.

    Everything on this page

    PERFORMANCE METRICS ADP's Forecasts Are Paid for on Margin Expansion, with Growth Held Steady CY2025 – CY2028E · bars = level, line = growth / margin · estimates are the platform's, shown as published Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Growth and margin are computed from the published series; estimate years are marked E. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 Revenue moves from $21.2B in CY2025 to an estimated $22.6B in CY2026E and $23.9B in CY2027E, growth of 6.4% then 5.8% — steady rather than accelerating. REVENUE & REVENUE GROWTH $21.2B 2025 $22.6B 2026E $23.9B 2027E $25.3B 2028E 6.4% 5.8% 6.1% bars: revenue (navy = actual, blue = estimate) · line: revenue growth EBITDA & EBITDA MARGIN $5.9B 2025 $6.6B 2026E $7.1B 2027E 27.9% 29.2% 29.9% bars: ebitda (navy = actual, teal = estimate) · line: ebitda margin · CY2028E not shown: no EBITDA figure published

  6. 06
    INVESTMENT BANKING KPI BENCHMARKING

    ADP Sits at the Peer Average on Growth and on EBITDA Margin Alike

    Benchmarks ADP's CY2026E revenue growth and EBITDA margin against its peer set.

    ADP's CY2026E revenue growth of 6.3% sits close to the 6.0% peer average, ahead of NSP at 1.4% and TNET at -3.9%, but behind WDAY at 12.0%. On margin, ADP's 29.2% CY2026E EBITDA margin sits just under the 29.5% peer average and well below PAYX at 47.5% and PAYC at 45.8%. ADP is an average operator on both axes — so its premium multiple has to be explained by something other than growth or margin, which is exactly what the rest of the deck sets out to do.

    Everything on this page

    INVESTMENT BANKING KPI BENCHMARKING ADP Sits at the Peer Average on Growth and on EBITDA Margin Alike Automatic Data Processing (ADP) highlighted · vertical line = peer average excluding the target Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. CY2026E revenue growth of 6.3% is close to the 6.0% peer average — ahead of NSP at 1.4% and TNET at -3.9%, behind WDAY at 12.0% — while the 29.2% CY2026E EBITDA margin sits just under the 29.5% peer average and well below PAYX at 47.5% and PAYC at 45.8%. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 CY2026 REVENUE GROWTH ADP 6.3% NSP 1.4% PAYC 7.6% PAYX 9.4% PCTY 9.3% SAP 6.0% TNET -3.9% WDAY 12.0% Peer average 6.0% CY2026 EBITDA MARGIN ADP 29.2% NSP 2.9% PAYC 45.8% PAYX 47.5% PCTY 35.5% SAP 32.1% TNET 8.8% WDAY 33.5% Peer average 29.5%

  7. 07
    COMPANY VALUATION METRICS

    The Comparable Set, with ADP Highlighted

    Compares ADP's trading multiples and implied share price against the peer set.

    ADP trades at 16.1x EV/CY2026E EBITDA against a peer median of 11.2x. Applying the peer set's 2026E P/E range of 15.98x to 19.53x to ADP's own earnings implies $186.98 to $228.53 a share, against a peer median P/E of 17.8x. The gap between ADP's multiple and what the peer set would imply for its share price is the clearest evidence that the market is pricing something beyond the comparable group's typical economics.

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    COMPANY VALUATION METRICS The Comparable Set, with ADP Highlighted ADP's 16.1x EV/CY2026E EBITDA stands against a peer median of 11.2x, while applying the set's 2026E P/E of 15.98x – 19.53x implies $186.98 – $228.53 against a peer median of 17.8x. Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Summary rows are computed over the peer set (outlier multiples excluded); the target row is shown for reference, not included in its own benchmark. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7 Company Price EV Mkt cap CY2026E Rev CY2026E Growth CY2026E Margin P/E 2026E P/E 2027E EV/Rev 2026E EV/EBITDA 2026E ADP — Automatic Data Processing, Inc. $263.11 $106B $105B $22.6B 6.4% 29.2% 22.5x 20.6x 4.7x 16.1x NSP — Insperity, Inc. $47.90 $1.7B $1.8B $6.9B 1.4% 2.9% 22.7x 17.8x 0.2x 8.3x PAYC — Paycom Software, Inc. $220.81 $10.6B $9.8B $2.2B 7.6% 45.8% 18.3x 15.8x 4.8x 10.4x PAYX — Paychex, Inc. $101.59 $35.6B $36.1B $6.7B 9.4% 47.5% 17.7x 16.3x 5.3x 11.2x PCTY — Paylocity Holding Corporation $143.64 $7.5B $7.7B $1.8B 9.3% 35.5% 17.9x 15.7x 4.1x 11.5x SAP — SAP SE $209.11 $244B $257B $45.8B 6.0% 32.1% n/a n/a 5.3x 16.6x TNET — TriNet Group, Inc. $65.54 $3.6B $3.0B $4.8B -3.9% 8.8% 13.5x 13.4x 0.8x 8.5x WDAY — Workday, Inc. $190.99 $46.4B $46.0B $10.6B 12.0% 33.5% 17.5x 14.7x 4.4x 13.1x Peer average 17.9x 15.6x 3.6x 11.4x Peer median 17.8x 15.7x 4.4x 11.2x

  8. 08
    MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS

    ADP: Buyers Pay up for Recurring Payroll Economics and Pay Down for Staffing Exposure

    Reviews precedent transactions in HCM and payroll, highlighting the multiples buyers paid for subscription platforms versus staffing-exposed assets.

    The deals that read onto ADP are the subscription HCM platforms: Thoma Bravo's $12.3B acquisition of Dayforce, Inc. at 22.8x EV/LTM EBITDA, and Paychex, Inc.'s $4.1B purchase of Paycor HCM, Inc. at 18.6x. Buyers have consistently paid up for recurring payroll economics and paid down for staffing exposure. That split is the strategic signal for ADP: the market rewards subscription-like retention, not headcount-driven volume.

    Everything on this page

    MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS ADP: Buyers Pay up for Recurring Payroll Economics and Pay Down for Staffing Exposure The deals that read onto ADP are the subscription HCM platforms: Thoma Bravo's $12.3B acquisition of Dayforce, Inc. at 22.8x EV/LTM EBITDA and Paychex, Inc.'s $4.1B purchase of Paycor HCM, Inc. at 18.6x, alongside H.I.G. Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Multiples are LTM/NTM at announcement where disclosed; values link to the record where a link exists. Summary rows exclude outlier multiples (disclosed on the sources page), show their n, and are suppressed (n/a) where fewer than 3 deals carry the multiple. The strategic read is a NeuraCap analytical view. * 4 of the transactions shown come from the precedent records of peers (NSP): the company's own record held too few with disclosed terms, so the set was extended. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 Announced Acquirer Target Deal value EV LTM Rev LTM EBITDA LTM EV/Rev LTM EV/EBITDA NTM EV/Rev NTM EV/EBITDA 2026-01-09 Hunt Equity Opportunities, LLC Kelly Services, Inc. * $106M $241M $4.2B $136M 0.1x 1.8x 0.1x 2.4x 2025-10-06 Heron BidCo, LLC Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. * $1.0B $656M $1.2B $108M 0.5x 6.1x 0.6x 5.4x 2025-08-20 Thoma Bravo Dayforce, Inc. $11.2B $12.3B $1.9B $540M 6.0x 22.8x 5.9x 18.4x 2025-05-13 HireQuest, Inc. TrueBlue, Inc. * $223M $216M $1.5B $5M 0.1x 46.0x 0.1x n/a 2025-01-07 Paychex, Inc. Paycor HCM, Inc. $4.0B $4.1B $700M $221M 5.5x 18.6x 5.5x 14.3x 2024-03-20 H.I.G. Payroll & Professional Services business $1.0B $1.2B n/a n/a n/a 10.0x n/a n/a 2023-12-01 HeadFirst Global B.V. Impellam Group Plc (nka:Impellam Group Limited) * $511M n/a n/a n/a 0.2x 13.3x n/a n/a 2021-01-25 Cannae Holdings, Inc. Alight, Inc. $5.7B $9.6B $2.7B $490M 3.5x n/a 3.3x n/a 75th percentile 5.5x 20.7x 5.6x 15.3x Average 3.2x 16.9x 3.8x 10.1x Median 3.5x 13.3x 4.4x 9.8x 25th percentile 0.5x 8.0x 2.6x 4.6x n (deals carrying the… n=5 n=7 n=4 n=4 THE STRATEGIC READ Across 7 precedent transactions the median EV/LTM EBITDA is 13.3x, with an upper quartile of 20.7x. The split matters more than the median: the subscription platforms cleared 22.8x (Dayforce, Inc.) and 18.6x (Paycor HCM, Inc.), while the carved-out Payroll & Professional Services business went at 10.0x.

  9. 09
    STRATEGIC ROADMAP

    ADP's Next Multiple Is Earned in Pricing, Mix and Attach, Not in Headcount Growth

    Lays out strategic options for pricing, mix, M&A and rate exposure that could support ADP's next multiple expansion.

    We frame four strategic paths as observations, not recommendations: converting AI investment into realised per-employee pricing, shifting the PEO mix toward margin-bearing service revenue, buying capability where the build cycle is too long, and diluting the share of earnings tied to interest rates. Each option is grounded in the sector study, the current market window, or the precedent transaction record. None of these is a prescription — they're the levers management and the board can evaluate against the evidence we've shown.

    Everything on this page

    STRATEGIC ROADMAP ADP's Next Multiple Is Earned in Pricing, Mix and Attach, Not in Headcount Growth NeuraCap analytical views grounded in the sector study, the latest market window and the precedent transactions · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. Each option is framed for evaluation, not as an instruction; the evidence chips show where each input comes from. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EVIDENCE Sector study: Premium · growth and margin Bi-Weekly window September 11–25, 2026: ADP -1.9% Precedent transactions: 8 (4 via peers) NEAR TERM Turn the AI Investment into Realised PEPM Pricing The FY2026 filings put R&D at $1.405 billion and set FY2027 capital expenditure at $200.0 million to $225.0 million. Converting that spend into per-employee-per-month price realisation is the route to growth that does not depend on pays per control. MEDIUM TERM Shift the PEO Mix Toward Margin-Bearing Service Revenue PEO revenue was $7.13 billion in FY2026, of which $4.61 billion was zero-margin benefits pass-through. Growing worksite employees and service fees faster than benefits billings is what moves the 29.2% CY2026E EBITDA margin past the 29.5% peer average. MEDIUM TERM Buy Capability Where the Build Cycle Is Too Long Precedent deals show platforms paying 22.8x and 18.6x EV/LTM EBITDA for subscription HCM assets, and the June 2026 facilities provide up to $9.2 billion of borrowing capacity.

  10. 10
    WHAT IT MEANS

    ADP's Premium Holds for as Long as FY2027 Delivery Does

    Translates the valuation evidence into implications for the board, counterparties and advisors.

    For the board, the premium is a promise with a clock on it: management has guided to FY2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6% off a $21.95 base, and that delivery is what keeps the multiple intact. For counterparties, retention and multi-jurisdiction filing capability are what get priced, not logo count. For advisors, the argument turns on net revenue versus gross billings, not on headline size.

    Everything on this page

    WHAT IT MEANS ADP's Premium Holds for as Long as FY2027 Delivery Does The evidence translated for the people who act on it · NeuraCap view · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (financials, estimates, comparables, transaction record, filings); market data through 2026-09-25. This page is analytical interpretation drawn from the recorded evidence. It is not investment advice. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 FOR THE BOARD & OWNERS The Premium Is a Promise with a Clock on It Management has forecast FY2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6% off $21.95 billion, with further adjusted EBIT margin expansion. FOR POTENTIAL COUNTERPARTIES Retention, Not Logo Count, Is What Gets Paid for Here Potential partners, investors or acquirers in this category underwrite recurring payroll revenue, client and revenue retention, and multi-jurisdiction tax filing capability — the drivers behind 22.8x for Dayforce, Inc. and 18.6x for Paycor HCM, Inc. ADP's $14. FOR ADVISORS The Argument Is Settled on Net Revenue, Not Gross Billings Valuation work here turns on net revenue versus gross billings — $4.61 billion of the PEO line is pass-through — on retention cohorts and PEPM integrity, and on funds held for clients being handled through a separate mechanic.

  11. 11
    SOURCES & METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Methodology and Important Notice

    Explains the sources and methodology behind every figure in the deck.

    Every figure in this deck links back to the record it was taken from, and where no link exists, this page names the source and the basis for the read. This is the reference page for how the analysis was built.

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    SOURCES & METHODOLOGY Sources, Methodology and Important Notice How this company deck is built and what each kind of statement rests on · Sep 25, 2026 Every figure on these pages links to the record it was taken from; where a figure has no link, this page names its source and the basis on which it was read. ADP Valuation & Strategy | Sep 25, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 11 OBSERVED DATA Prices, financials, estimates, comparables and the transaction record come from the NeuraCap analytics platform exactly as recorded; filings link to their source. Nothing on any page is re-derived from outside data. PEER SET & PRECEDENTS The peer set is the platform's own refined competitor list for Automatic Data Processing (7 names), used as the product's company screen uses it. Automatic Data Processing's own precedent record held too few transactions with a disclosed value or multiple, so the record was extended with the peers' precedent records (NSP): 4 of the 8 transactions shown come from those records, marked * on the precedents page and de-duplicated on target and date. Summary rows are computed over the set shown and… VALUATION METHODS Each football-field bar applies a method’s median multiple, ±10% (peer multiples, or precedent-transaction multiples), to the company’s own financials; per-share values bridge enterprise value through recorded net debt and diluted shares. Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. MULTIPLE QUALITY All recorded multiples passed the sanity bounds; none were excluded. INHERITED CONTEXT Sector positioning and the market window are inherited from sector study run_20260925T155112Z_640_prod and bi-weekly update weekly_20260925T171502Z_640_production — distilled, never re-derived. Their own sources pages govern that content. DRIVER ATTRIBUTION A share-price move is linked to a filing only in calibrated language ("the move appears to reflect…"). Where no filing explains a move, the page says so. ANALYTICAL INTERPRETATION The roadmap and what-it-means pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence, labeled as such, framed for evaluation. IMPORTANT NOTICE This report is informational only. Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here. Linked sources: sec.gov

Sources and methodology

Automatic Data Processing's financials, share price, market capitalisation and enterprise value are as recorded from its SEC filings and market data as of September 25, 2026; forward figures are analyst consensus estimates. The peer set is the listed companies whose business most closely overlaps Automatic Data Processing's, selected by comparing reported business segments: Insperity, Inc. (NSP), Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC), Paychex, Inc. (PAYX), Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY), SAP SE (SAP), TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET), Workday, Inc. (WDAY). Peer multiples, growth and margins are computed from their filings, consensus estimates and market prices as of September 25, 2026.

What this report is built from

Automatic Data Processing's financials, share price, market capitalisation and enterprise value are as recorded from its SEC filings and market data as of September 25, 2026; forward figures are analyst consensus estimates. The peer set is the listed companies whose business most closely overlaps Automatic Data Processing's, selected by comparing reported business segments: Insperity, Inc. (NSP), Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC), Paychex, Inc. (PAYX), Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY), SAP SE (SAP), TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET), Workday, Inc. (WDAY). Peer multiples, growth and margins are computed from their filings, consensus estimates and market prices as of September 25, 2026.

The valuation methods and how the ranges are computed

Each football-field bar applies one valuation method to Automatic Data Processing's own financials. For a peer method the multiple is the median of the peer set's multiples (for example EV over the calendar-year consensus EBITDA); for a precedent method it is the median multiple paid in the recorded transactions (EV over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement). Each bar spans that median ±10% and is applied to the company's own revenue or EBITDA for the same basis; enterprise value is bridged to a per-share value through recorded net debt and diluted shares, and the trading range and analyst range are shown alongside for reference. A multiple outside sanity bounds (P/E 2–100x, EV/EBITDA 1–60x, EV/Revenue 0.2–30x) is excluded from every range and disclosed. The methods' median is the median of the bar midpoints. All valuation content is an illustrative perspective, not an opinion of value.

KPI benchmarking

Growth and EBITDA margin are compared across the peer set; the peer average excludes Automatic Data Processing so the company is measured against its peers rather than a set it is part of. Metrics benchmarked: CY2026 Revenue Growth, CY2026 EBITDA Margin. Where one peer's figure is far outside the rest of the set, its bar is drawn not to scale and marked, and its true figure is printed.

Precedent transactions

The precedent record is the set of recorded transactions involving Automatic Data Processing's peers and closest comparables, taken from SEC filings, with the 75th percentile, average, median and 25th percentile of the disclosed multiples. Multiples are LTM/NTM at announcement where disclosed; values link to the record where a link exists.

Inherited context

Sector positioning is inherited from NeuraCap's latest sector outlook for this industry and the latest bi-weekly update frames the current market window; both are distilled, never re-derived, and their own methodology governs their content.

Sources

Company financials and filings: the company's SEC filings on EDGAR. Peer financials, transaction terms and events: SEC filings on EDGAR, linked from each figure. Forward figures: analyst consensus estimates. Prices and market capitalisations: market data as of September 25, 2026.

Interpretation and important notice

The strategic roadmap and what-it-means pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence, framed for evaluation and not as instructions. Illustrative valuation perspectives — not an opinion of value, not a fairness opinion, not a price target. This report is informational and not investment advice.

This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.

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