Human Capital Management Software Sector Outlook — September 2026
A sector-wide read on Human Capital Management Software, comparing public company valuations, growth and margin drivers, and recent acquisition pricing. Built for corporate development, finance and strategy leaders assessing where this market pays a premium and why.
Key figures
- 9.9x
- Sector Median Multiple EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), 9 rated companies
- 12.6x
- Top-Tier Cohort Multiple 4 of 9 names clearing growth and margin bars
- 30%
- Median Forward EBITDA Margin 9 of 9 rated companies
- 22.8x
- Dayforce Acquisition Multiple LTM EBITDA at announcement
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1 / 22 · INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY › SOFTWARE AND SERVICES › HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Executive summary
Across nine rated HCM software companies, the four names pairing growth with margin trade at 12.6x CY2027E EBITDA, versus 8.4x for those clearing neither bar, against a 9.9x sector median. Recent buyouts, including Thoma Bravo's purchase of Dayforce at 22.8x EBITDA, have priced above the listed range. Reported EBITDA margins across this set range from 3% to 56%, reflecting different business models — co-employment billings versus subscription software — so growth and margin should be read together, not margin alone.
Key findings
- Four of nine HCM names clear both growth and margin bars, commanding higher multiples.
- Sector trades at a 9.9x EV/EBITDA median, with premium and discount tiers far apart.
- Recent buyouts, including Dayforce at 22.8x EBITDA, priced above the public range.
- Co-employment margins reflect billings, not net revenue — read margin alongside growth.
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY › SOFTWARE AND SERVICES › HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Cover page introducing the Human Capital Management Software sector report, dated September 25, 2026.
We open with a sector-wide look at Human Capital Management Software, valued primarily on EV/EBITDA for the year ending 2027. This deck sets up where the premium in this group actually sits.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY › SOFTWARE AND SERVICES › HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE HCM Software: Profit Quality Stands Out The listed peer set and transaction record show where durable earnings, balanced execution and operating model matter most. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
Lists the report's five sections plus appendix: the bottom line, the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions, and strategic implications.
We've built this report so the bottom line lands first — one section gives you the full story, and everything after it supports that finding. From there we walk the market landscape, the valuation drivers, the precedent deals, and what all of it means strategically. So what: you can stop after section one, or go deeper into any part that matters most to your decision.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line HCM Software Rewards Balanced Execution 02 The Landscape Similar Sector Labels Mask Different Earnings Engines 03 Valuation & Situations The Premium End Pairs Growth with Credible Profit 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Agreed to Pay Reflects Platform Conviction 05 Strategic Implications Stronger Positioning Starts with Earnings Quality 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
The Top of Human Capital Management Software Holds Margin and Growth Together, in Software and in Workforce Supply
Summarizes the report's core finding: the top tier of HCM software companies pairs margin with growth, in both software and workforce-supply businesses.
We lead with the finding: across all nine rated companies, EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus is the basis that leads, because this set is profitable — 30% median forward EBITDA margin, with nine of nine names carrying a meaningful EBITDA. The names sitting at the top of the range are the ones that hold margin and growth together, not the ones growing fastest alone. So what: when you're benchmarking where you sit in this group, margin quality is as much a part of the multiple as the growth rate.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Human Capital Management Software Separates into Workforce Applications, Workforce Supply and Care-Delivery Demand The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners also quote EV / Revenue in this industry; this set is profitable (median forward EBITDA margin 30%, 9 of 9 names with a meaningful EBITDA), so EV / EBITDA leads and EV / Revenue is the cross-check. Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 Profitable Growth Occupies the Premium Position The premium end sits at 14.9x, while the discount end sits at 6.5x. These forward multiples already credit forecast performance, so the remaining spread points to perceived durability. 2 Balanced Operators Hold the Cleaner Valuation Position Four of nine names clear both the growth and margin bars, with a 12.9x middle valuation. That position is consistent with the resilience associated with a system of record, disciplined retention and operating leverage. 3 Business Model Matters Even Within One Sector Workforce management and scheduling applications sit at 10.4x, compared with 9.8x for contingent staffing and workforce supply. Net service revenue, co-employment exposure and funds held for clients make earnings composition central to the comparison. 4 Recorded Transactions Carry Demanding Valuation Benchmarks Dayforce, Inc. was recorded at 22.8x in a completed transaction. The announced Paychex, Inc. [PAYX] agreement for Paycor HCM, Inc. was recorded at 18.6x. 9.9x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 9 rated of 9 companies 14.9x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 6.5x at the discount end top quartile (n=3) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 27 Transactions with disclosed terms 53 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
Divider introducing the market landscape section: three groups sharing one label with a narrow valuation spread between them.
This section maps three distinct groups under the Human Capital Management Software label: workforce management software, workforce-supply businesses, and one care-delivery employer. So what: knowing which group a company sits in changes how you should read its multiple.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Similar Sector Labels Mask Different Earnings Engines Software, workforce supply and care-delivery demand carry different operating risks. 02 of 06 Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
Enterprise Value Is Concentrated in Workforce Management Software and the Workforce-Supply Books Beside It
Groups the nine approved companies by business segment and shows median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each group.
We group the nine approved companies by business segment and look at where enterprise value concentrates. The workforce management software group and the workforce-supply names beside it carry the bulk of the value in this set. So what: segment matters before company-specific factors do when you're sizing where a name should trade.
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02 · MARKET MAP Market Value Is Spread Across Three Distinct Operating Models 9 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT AND SCHEDULING APPLICATIONS 4 cos median 10.4x Automatic Data (ADP) Paycom Software (PAYC) Paylocity Holding (PCTY) Asure Software (ASUR) Recurring software revenue and module attach shape the durability case. ADJACENT: CONTINGENT STAFFING AND WORKFORCE SUPPLY 4 cos median 9.8x Paychex (PAYX) TriNet Group (TNET) Insperity (NSP) HireQuest (HQI) Workforce exposure, service delivery and net service revenue shape earnings quality. ADJACENT: CARE-DELIVERY EMPLOYERS (WORKFORCE DEMAND SIDE) 1 cos 9.1x · 1 rated AMN Healthcare (AMN) Care-delivery demand adds a distinct employment-cycle and customer-mix exposure.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
Payroll and HCM Splits into Three Groups, and the Valuation Spread Is Wider Inside Each Group than Between Them
Shows that Payroll and HCM splits into three groups, with a wider valuation spread inside each group than between the groups themselves.
The segment view confirms something important: the spread inside each group is wider than the spread between the groups. That means picking the right segment doesn't tell you much on its own — company-specific growth and margin still drive most of the difference. So what: use the group as a starting point, not the answer, when you benchmark a specific name.
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02 · LANDSCAPE Operating Model Separates the Peer Set Before Valuation Does Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Workforce management and scheduling applications 4 44% 10.4x Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) · Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) · +2 more Software leads the set. Four names sit in this group, which carries a 10.4x middle valuation. Unified database architecture, module attach and retention frame the operating debate. Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply 4 44% 9.8x Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) · TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) · +2 more Service economics stay visible. Four names sit in this group, which carries a 9.8x middle valuation. Worksite employees, service intensity and pass-through billings can materially change how reported scale converts into profit. Adjacent: care-delivery employers (workforce demand side) 1 11% 9.1x n=1 AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN) Demand exposure stands apart. AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. [AMN] is the single name in this group and carries a 9.1x valuation. Its care-delivery exposure makes customer demand and employment conditions especially relevant.
- 07SECTION 03
03
Divider introducing the public market valuation section, noting all nine companies carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate.
All nine companies in this set carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, so we lead the valuation work with the profit multiple rather than revenue. So what: the range on this basis runs wide, and the next pages show you where it comes from.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Premium End Pairs Growth with Credible Profit Forward pricing remains separated even after forecast performance is credited. 03 of 06 Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
The Forward Multiple Already Credits Growth, and the Premium End Holds Its Premium Anyway
Ranks all nine rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) and shows the sector median of 9.9x.
Sorting all nine rated names by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), the sector median lands at 9.9x, and the top of the range holds its premium rather than converging toward the middle. We lead with this basis because the set is profitable — 30% median forward EBITDA margin — so EV/Revenue only serves as a cross-check here. So what: the persistence of the premium at the top tells you the market is paying for something specific, which the next pages isolate.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Premium End Combines Growth with Credible Earnings EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 9 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 9.9x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners also quote EV / Revenue in this industry; this set is profitable (median forward EBITDA margin 30%, 9 of 9 names with a meaningful EBITDA), so EV / EBITDA leads and EV / Revenue is the cross-check. Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 14.9x CORE · median 9.5x DISCOUNT · median 6.5x Sector median 9.9x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The premium end combines both. The premium tier carries a 14.9x middle valuation, with growth and profit present across different operating models. Discounts flag an unfinished equation. The discount tier carries a 6.5x middle valuation. Growth without the same profit profile, or limited growth alongside thinner margins, leaves more for management to establish. Forward pricing tests durability. The valuation lens already incorporates forecast EBITDA. A premium that remains after that forecast credit is consistent with greater confidence in earnings durability.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
Profitability, Not Growth, Separates the Premium End from the Discount End
Splits companies into growth and margin cohorts to show which factor separates the premium end from the discount end.
When we split the rated set into faster- and slower-growth cohorts, and separately into higher- and lower-margin cohorts, the margin split does more work in explaining the premium end. This is an association we observe in the data, not a causal claim. So what: a growth story alone doesn't fully explain the multiple in this set — margin discipline carries real weight.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Profitability Separates Valuation Outcomes More Clearly than Growth Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=5; slower n=4; higher-margin n=5; lower-margin n=4). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 5% · EBITDA-margin split at 30% Balanced Growth and Margin Hold the Leading Position Four of nine names clear both bars, and the group carries a 12.9x middle valuation. The observed premium is associated with balanced execution rather than growth in isolation. Margin Without Faster Growth Can Still Support Value The single margin-only name carries an 11.3x valuation. That outcome is consistent with a market that gives weight to established earnings quality. Growth Alone Leaves More of the Case Unresolved The single growth-only name carries a 5.8x valuation. The small base limits broad conclusions, but the observation puts margin conversion and revenue quality on the agenda.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
The Upper Multiples Sit with the Four Names Growing Above the Middle
Places each company on a grid of EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and revenue growth versus the covered median.
Cutting the set on the sector median multiple and the covered median growth rate, the upper multiples sit with the four names growing above the middle. This is an observation on where names currently sit, not a recommendation. So what: it's a useful map for locating where any given name — or a target — falls relative to its peers today.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Growth and Profitability Point to the Next Operating Priority Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (9.9x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (5%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Premium with Growth Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 4 names Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) · Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) · Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) · +1 more Four names sit above the 9.9x sector midpoint and above the growth midpoint. Their agenda is sustaining retention, module attach and margin discipline as expectations rise. Premium Without Faster Growth Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 1 names Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Paychex, Inc. [PAYX] sits above the valuation midpoint without faster growth. The operating question is whether earnings durability and installed-base economics can continue to support that position. Growth Awaiting Conversion Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 1 names Asure Software, Inc. (ASUR) Asure Software, Inc. [ASUR] sits below the valuation midpoint despite faster growth. The operating question is how revenue quality and margin conversion develop. Execution Case Still Open Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 3 names TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) · Insperity, Inc. (NSP) · AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN) TriNet Group, Inc. [TNET], Insperity, Inc. [NSP] and AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. [AMN] sit below both midpoints. Their agendas centre on growth quality, cost structure and confidence in forward earnings.
- 1103 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY
Clearing Both Bars Is Where the Upper Multiples Cluster
Plots revenue growth against EBITDA margin for all nine companies with both estimates, showing where the upper multiples cluster.
Plotting revenue growth against EBITDA margin, cut at the covered medians of 5% growth and 30% margin, the highest median EV/EBITDA sits in the quadrant clearing both bars. So what: growth and margin together, not either alone, is where this market is paying up.
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03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Only Four Names Clear Both Growth and Profitability Bars Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2027E, y-axis) · 9 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (5% growth, 30% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=4; margin-only n=1; growth-only n=1; neither n=3). AMN plotted at the chart edge. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 -10% 0% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% MARGIN ONLY median 11.3x BALANCED median 12.9x NEITHER median 8.2x GROWTH ONLY median 5.8x AMN TNET NSP PAYX HQI ADP PCTY PAYC ASUR x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2027E) HOW TO READ THIS The chart covers nine names and splits them at 5% growth and 30% margin. Four sit above both bars, one clears only the margin bar and one clears only the growth bar. Three sit below both. The small groups should be read as company-specific signals rather than broad rules. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 4 of 9 names clear it (HQI, PAYX, PCTY, PAYC).
- 1203 · THE AGENDA
At the Top of This Range, Growth and Margin Show up Together
Frames the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve, based on where growth and margin show up together at the top of the range.
At the top of this range, growth and margin consistently show up together, and we frame that as a set of questions worth resolving rather than a scorecard. This is a directional view grounded in the cohort data shown earlier, not investment advice. So what: the questions here are a starting point for planning your own positioning.
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03 · THE AGENDA The Next Operating Priority Depends on Whether Growth or Profitability Lacks Proof NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Deepen the Installed-Base Economics Which modules, customer groups and pricing structures can improve revenue quality without weakening retention? What changes the answer: Module attach improves while client retention remains disciplined. Convert Growth into Operating Leverage Which implementation, service-delivery and go-to-market costs can scale more efficiently as revenue grows? What changes the answer: Incremental revenue begins to carry a more credible profit contribution. Separate Durable and Variable Earnings How should management balance subscription earnings with funds held for clients, benefits outcomes and other less predictable sources? What changes the answer: The recurring earnings base becomes a clearer share of the profit mix. Resolve the Architecture Choice Where does a unified database improve product attach, implementation speed and service cost relative to legacy code bases? What changes the answer: Migration economics support lower service intensity and broader product adoption.
- 13SECTION 04
04
Divider introducing the precedent transactions section, noting recent payroll and cloud HCM deals sit above the listed group's trading range.
Recent payroll and cloud HCM transactions have priced above where the listed nine currently trade. So what: the next pages walk through what buyers have actually agreed to pay.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Agreed to Pay Reflects Platform Conviction Recorded terms show demanding benchmarks for scaled HCM and payroll assets. 04 of 06 Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13
- 1404 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
What Buyers Have Agreed to Pay for Payroll and HCM Assets
Walks through three of the thirty disclosed-terms transactions as case studies, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement.
We highlight case studies from the transactions with disclosed terms, including Thoma Bravo's purchase of Dayforce at $12.3B, recorded at 22.8x EBITDA. These are LTM-at-announcement multiples, not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis, so we don't claim a spread between the two. So what: buyers have shown willingness to pay well above the listed range for the right asset — the case studies show what they valued when they did.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Recorded Deals Suggest Buyer Interest in Scaled HCM Assets 3 of 27 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 58 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Aug-2025 $12.3B Thoma Bravo Thoma Bravo backed Dayforce, Inc. at meaningful scale. EV / LTM revenue 6.0x EV / LTM EBITDA 22.8x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The completed transaction pairs a sponsor with a scaled HCM platform. It suggests confidence in recurring revenue, retention and the potential for operating leverage. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The recorded enterprise value was $12.3B and the recorded EBITDA multiple was 22.8x. That benchmark sits above the listed premium tier. Jan-2021 $9.6B Cannae Holdings, Inc. acquires Alight, Inc. EV / LTM revenue 3.5x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The filing records $9.6B of enterprise value, struck at 3.5x LTM revenue. Jan-2025 $4.1B Paychex, Inc. Paychex, Inc. [PAYX] moved to add Paycor HCM, Inc. EV / LTM revenue 5.5x EV / LTM EBITDA 18.6x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The announced agreement joins two payroll and HCM businesses serving employer relationships. It suggests strategic value in product depth, distribution reach and an expanded installed base. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The recorded enterprise value was $4.1B and the recorded EBITDA multiple was 18.6x. The terms provide a strategic benchmark for scaled payroll and HCM capability.
- 15SECTION 05
05
Divider introducing the strategic implications section, focused on where the multiple is earned and which levers management can move.
This section turns to what the data means for the business you run — where the multiple is earned, and which levers a management team can actually move. So what: the next pages translate the valuation evidence into specific operating questions.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Stronger Positioning Starts with Earnings Quality Revenue mix, retention and operating leverage shape the durability case. 05 of 06 Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15
- 1605 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
In Human Capital Management Software, Higher Multiples Sit with Names That Grow and Hold Margin
Argues that higher multiples sit with companies that grow while holding margin, and lays out the questions this raises for the next twelve months.
The pattern across this sector is consistent: higher multiples sit with names that grow and hold margin at the same time, not with growth or margin alone. This is a directional view drawn from the analysis in this report, framed as observations rather than recommendations. So what: for the next twelve months, the practical question is which lever — growth or margin — your business can move without giving up the other.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Durable Earnings Require Choices Across Product, Mix and Cost NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Build Around Recurring Profit Quality Prioritise customer and product combinations where retention, module attach and pricing translate into durable earnings. FOR MANAGEMENT Make Growth Carry Its Cost Align implementation, service delivery and sales investment with the segments where incremental revenue can support operating leverage. FOR BOARDS Test Build Versus Buy Compare internal product investment with acquisitions that can add module depth, employer relationships or a more efficient operating model.
- 17SECTION 06
06
Divider introducing the appendix: the full comparables universe, methodology and sources behind every figure in the report.
The appendix carries the full comparables universe, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. So what: every figure in the body of this report can be traced back to its source here.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17
- 1806 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
Lists all nine rated public comparables on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), grouped by valuation tier, with tickers linked to source.
This page lays out all nine rated comparables on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), shaded above and below the 9.9x sector median, with tickers linked to the underlying source. So what: it's the full reference table behind every multiple discussed earlier in the deck.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (9.9x); amber marks below · 9 rated companies · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 9 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥11.3x · median 14.9x · 3 companies HireQuest, Inc. HQI Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply $273M 15.1x 5% 56% 61 Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP Workforce management and scheduling applications $106B 14.9x 6% 30% 36 Paychex, Inc. PAYX Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply $38.8B 11.3x 5% 48% 54 CORE — 8.2x–11.3x · median 9.5x · 4 companies Paylocity Holding Corporation PCTY Workforce management and scheduling applications $7.5B 10.9x 7% 35% 42 Paycom Software, Inc. PAYC Workforce management and scheduling applications $10.9B 9.9x 7% 47% 54 AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. AMN Adjacent: care-delivery employers (workforce demand… $1.5B 9.1x -21% 6% -14 TriNet Group, Inc. TNET Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply $3.5B 8.2x 4% 9% 12 DISCOUNT — <8.2x · median 6.5x · 2 companies Insperity, Inc. NSP Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply $1.7B 7.2x 4% 3% 8 Asure Software, Inc. ASUR Workforce management and scheduling applications $257M 5.8x 9% 26% 34
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
Lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, the first of two pages covering the majority of the transactions.
This page begins the full list of transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, with deal values linked to the underlying filing. Multiples shown are LTM at announcement and are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis. So what: this is the primary evidence behind the deal pricing referenced earlier in the report.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 27 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (53 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 58 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 27 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Aug-2025 Thoma Bravo → Dayforce, Inc. $12.3B 6.0x 22.8x Thoma Bravo completed its transaction for Dayforce, Inc. The pairing suggests continued sponsor interest in scaled HCM platforms with recurring revenue. Aug-2025 n/a → Paylocity Holding Corporation n/a 5.5x 14.8x Aug-2025 n/a → Paycom Software, Inc. n/a 5.5x 14.8x Aug-2025 n/a → Workday, Inc. n/a 5.5x 14.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. Aug-2025 n/a → Paycom Software, Inc. n/a 5.5x 14.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. Aug-2025 n/a → Paylocity Holding Corporation n/a 5.5x 14.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. Jan-2025 Paychex, Inc. → Paycor HCM, Inc. $4.1B 5.5x 18.6x Paychex, Inc. [PAYX] announced an agreement for Paycor HCM, Inc. The combination suggests strategic value in adding employer relationships and payroll capability. Mar-2024 H.I.G. → Payroll & Professional Services business (unit of Payroll & Professional Services business) $1.2B n/a 10.0x H.I.G. completed its transaction for Payroll & Professional Services business (unit of Payroll & Professional Services business). The record suggests sponsor interest extends beyond subscription software. Dec-2022 Pearson plc → Personnel Decisions Research Institutes, LLC $190M n/a n/a Pearson plc announced its transaction for Personnel Decisions Research Institutes, LLC. The pairing suggests value in adding workforce assessment capability to an adjacent platform.
- 2006 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
Continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, completing the transaction set.
This page completes the disclosed-terms transaction list started on the previous page. As before, multiples are LTM at announcement and are shown as recorded in the filing, including where data-quality flags apply. So what: together these two pages give you the complete precedent record behind the case studies discussed earlier.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 27 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (53 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 58 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 27 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Aug-2021 Flutter Entertainment plc → Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. n/a 2.5x 10.4x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Aug-2021 Clearlake Capital Group, L.P. → Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. n/a 5.9x 18.8x Jan-2021 Cannae Holdings, Inc. → Alight, Inc. $9.6B 3.5x n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jan-2021 Learning Technologies Group plc → Reflektive, Inc. n/a 5.5x 0.7x Jun-2019 Calabrio, Inc. → Teleopti Inc. n/a 0.7x 8.8x Feb-2019 Hellman & Friedman → The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. n/a 9.4x 39.2x Feb-2019 Investor Group → The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. n/a 8.4x 34.5x Jan-2019 Hunting PLC → YourCause Holdings, LLC n/a n/a 9.7x Mar-2018 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts → Lessor Group n/a n/a 11.7x
- 2106 · REPORTED FIGURES AND THEIR FILINGS
Every Reported Figure, Linked to the Filing It Was Taken From
Links every reported figure in the report to the filing it was taken from, for all nine companies.
Every reported figure in this report links back to the specific filing it came from, with a fragment that scrolls the browser straight to the number. Figures shown here are as reported, not estimates, and a blank cell means the platform holds no filing-sourced value for that item. So what: you can verify any reported number in this deck against its original source directly.
Everything on this page
06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 21 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners also quote EV / Revenue in this industry; this set is profitable (median forward EBITDA margin 30%, 9 of 9 names with a meaningful EBITDA), so EV / EBITDA leads and EV / Revenue is the cross-check. EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Human Capital Management Software and it clears the coverage gate with 9 of 9 companies (100%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 9 of the 9 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 3 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 436 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (435) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
- 2206 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
Explains the report's sources, the valuation basis, exclusions and data-quality treatment.
This page sets out how the report was built: the valuation basis, what was excluded and why, and where every underlying disclosure lives. So what: it's the reference point if you want to trace how any figure in this deck was derived or confirm what was left out.
Everything on this page
The Premium Sits with Balanced Growth, Credible Profit and Durable Earnings. NeuraCap AI — Human Capital Management Software Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Human Capital Management Software Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 22
- 23
In This Set, the Upper Multiples Sit with Names Holding Margin and Growth Together.
In This Set, the Upper Multiples Sit with Names Holding Margin and Growth Together..
Closing — In This Set, the Upper Multiples Sit with Names Holding Margin and Growth Together. The companion tables beside this deck carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure a client wants to trace. 23
Sources and methodology
This report covers Human Capital Management Software (Information Technology › Software and Services › Human Capital Management Software) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 25, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Human Capital Management Software according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN), Asure Software, Inc. (ASUR), HireQuest, Inc. (HQI), Insperity, Inc. (NSP), Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC), Paychex, Inc. (PAYX), Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY), TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET). The market map groups them by business vertical — Workforce management and scheduling applications: 4 companies (ADP, PAYC, PCTY, ASUR); Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply: 4 companies (PAYX, TNET, NSP, HQI); Adjacent: care-delivery employers (workforce demand side): 1 company (AMN). 9 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Human Capital Management Software (Information Technology › Software and Services › Human Capital Management Software) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 25, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Human Capital Management Software according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN), Asure Software, Inc. (ASUR), HireQuest, Inc. (HQI), Insperity, Inc. (NSP), Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC), Paychex, Inc. (PAYX), Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY), TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET). The market map groups them by business vertical — Workforce management and scheduling applications: 4 companies (ADP, PAYC, PCTY, ASUR); Adjacent: contingent staffing and workforce supply: 4 companies (PAYX, TNET, NSP, HQI); Adjacent: care-delivery employers (workforce demand side): 1 company (AMN). 9 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
3 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (3 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: AMN — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · ASUR — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · NSP — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners also quote EV / Revenue in this industry; this set is profitable (median forward EBITDA margin 30%, 9 of 9 names with a meaningful EBITDA), so EV / EBITDA leads and EV / Revenue is the cross-check. EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Human Capital Management Software and it clears the coverage gate with 9 of 9 companies (100%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 9 of the 9 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 9 of 9 companies; EV / rEVenue: 9 of 9 companies; P/E: 9 of 9 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥11.6x, Core 8.4x–11.6x, Discount <8.4x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 9.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (9 rated companies) · 14.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 9.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=5) · 6.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 11.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 5% (n=5) · 8.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 5% (n=4) · 11.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 30% (n=5) · 7.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 30% (n=4) · 36% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=9) · 12.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within balanced quadrant (n=4) · 11.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within marginOnly quadrant (n=1) · 5.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within growthOnly quadrant (n=1) · 8.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within neither quadrant (n=3)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Human Capital Management Software recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 56 transactions were recorded for this industry; 30 are shown. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 36 × no evidence record; 15 × deal value unit unresolved; 2 × duplicate filings collapsed; 2 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 3 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 25, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 440 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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