Logistics and Supply Chain Services Sector Outlook — September 2026

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INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES

Logistics: The Premium Sits with Margin Durability

How the listed logistics set is priced today, which groups sit at the top of the range, and what recent buyers paid for whole companies.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

Sources & methodology

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1. 01

   INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES

   Cover slide introducing the September 2026 Logistics and Supply Chain Services sector outlook.

   We open this outlook with the freight and logistics universe as it prices today, as of September 2026, using EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus as our primary valuation lens. Three distinct business models sit inside this one label, and the pricing gap between them is the story we walk through next.

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   INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES Logistics: The Premium Sits with Margin Durability How the listed logistics set is priced today, which groups sit at the top of the range, and what recent buyers paid for whole companies. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

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   CONTENTS

   What This Report Covers

   Contents slide listing the five sections plus appendix that make up the report.

   This report runs five sections plus an appendix: the bottom line, the market landscape, public market valuation, precedent transactions, and strategic implications. We've placed the bottom line first by design, so a reader who only has a few minutes still leaves with the complete story. Each later section builds the supporting evidence behind that headline. So what: you can go as deep as time allows without losing the thread.

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   CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Three Groups, Three Pricing Conversations in Logistics and Supply Chain Services 02 The Landscape Truckload Carriage Is Almost Half the Set, and the Adjacent Models Price Above It 03 Valuation & Situations A Forward Multiple Already Credits Growth, and the Top of the Range Still Holds It 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Paid for Whole Companies, from Warehouse Platforms to Asset-Based Freight 05 Strategic Implications Margin Durability and Contract Duration Are Inside an Owner's Control 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

   Truckload Carriage, Carrier Networks and Adjacent Models Are Priced Apart in Logistics and Supply Chain Services

   This slide states the report's headline: the three business models inside logistics price apart, with margin durability behind the premium.

   Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage makes up 45% of the approved set, while carrier networks and adjacent models split the remainder, and each group is underwritten on different assets. The four names at the top of our range trade at a median 14.4x on CY2027E EV / EBITDA, against 5.5x for the four at the bottom, a gap that survives the forward growth already priced into the multiple. Faster growth alone has not closed this gap in our data, and the premium end instead sits with margin durability. So what: one sector average tells an owner little about where their own business should sit.

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Truckload Carriage, Carrier Networks and Adjacent Models Are Priced Apart in Logistics and Supply Chain Services The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (17 of 22 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 One Label, Three Different Businesses to Price Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage is 10 of the 22 approved names, 45% of the set; multi-modal carrier networks and adjacent models — rail, fleet leasing, cold storage, on-demand delivery — hold the rest. Three groups, underwritten on different assets, so one sector average tells an owner little about their own business. 2 The Gap Between the Two Ends of the Range Is Worth Working On The 4 names at the top of the range carry a middle multiple of 14.4x on CY2027E EV / EBITDA; the 4 at the bottom sit at 5.5x. A forward multiple already credits the growth in the forecast, so a premium that survives it points to earnings the market expects to hold. 3 Faster Growth Alone Has Not Bought a Higher Multiple Here Among the 17 names with a CY2027E estimate, the 8 growing below 6% sit at a middle multiple of 9.3x, while the 9 growing above it sit at 6.9x. The higher pricing is associated with the slower-growing, wider-margin part of the set, and a plan built on volume alone has little support in these figures. 4 Margin Durability Is What the Top of the Range Carries Of the 17 names with a CY2027E estimate, the 4 clearing a 14% EBITDA margin without clearing the growth cut-off sit at 14.2x, against 7.4x for the 5 clearing both bars. In a sector where operating ratio governs the narrative, that margin line is the one an owner can work on through the cycle. 7.7x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 17 rated of 22 companies 14.4x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 5.5x at the discount end top quartile (n=4) against bottom quartile (n=4) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 14 Transactions with disclosed terms 52 recorded in this tier · 1 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

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   SECTION 02

   02

   Divider introducing section two, the market landscape and segment detail.

   Section two turns to the market landscape: what each of the three groups does, and what buyers underwrite in each one. We use this page to reset before walking through the segment detail.

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   SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Truckload Carriage Is Almost Half the Set, and the Adjacent Models Price Above It What the three groups do, and what buyers underwrite in each of them. 02 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

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   02 · MARKET MAP

   Almost Half the Set Runs Truckload and Less-than-Truckload Freight; The Adjacent Models Price Above It

   This slide groups the 22 approved companies into three segments and compares their median CY2027E EV/EBITDA.

   Close to half the approved set runs truckload and less-than-truckload freight, and the remaining names split across multi-modal carrier networks and adjacent models such as rail, fleet leasing, cold storage and on-demand delivery. When we group all 22 approved companies by segment and take the median EV / EBITDA on CY2027E for each, the adjacent-model and carrier-network groups price above the truckload group. So what: segment membership, not sector membership, is the first cut a reader should apply to any multiple in this deck.

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   02 · MARKET MAP Almost Half the Set Runs Truckload and Less-than-Truckload Freight; The Adjacent Models Price Above It 22 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 TRUCKLOAD AND LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD CARRIAGE 10 cos median 8.0x Old Dominion (ODFL) XPO Logistics (XPO) TFI International (TFII) Knight-Swift (KNX) Saia (SAIA) ArcBest (ARCB) Werner Enterprises (WERN) Covenant (CVLG) Marten Transport (MRTN) Pamt (PAMT) 10 of the 22 approved names, 45% of the set: door count, lane balance and seated trucks are what buyers underwrite here. MULTI-MODAL INTEGRATED CARRIER NETWORKS 6 cos median 7.5x United Parcel (UPS) GXO Logistics (GXO) Forward Air (FWRD) Hub Group (HUBG) Cryoport (CYRX) Shengfeng (SFWL) Six names blending parcel, brokerage and contract logistics, where recurring gross profit and integration into customer systems carry the value. ADJACENT MODELS 6 cos median 8.7x Norfolk Southern (NSC) Ryder System (R) Americold Realty (COLD) Lyft (LYFT) Park-Ohio Holdings (PKOH) Strata Critical (SRTA) Six names in rail, fleet leasing, temperature-controlled warehousing and on-demand delivery, priced on assets, contracts and residual values as much as on freight.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE

   Density, Duration and Real Estate: What Buyers Underwrite Across the Three Groups

   This slide explains what each of the three segments does operationally and what buyers underwrite in each.

   Across the three groups, buyers are underwriting different things: network density and terminal footprint in carrier networks, contract duration in adjacent models, and asset intensity in truckload carriage. We lay out what each group does and why it matters to a buyer, building on the segment medians introduced on the prior page. Full company-level detail sits in the appendix for any name a client wants to trace. So what: understanding what's being underwritten is the first step to reading any multiple correctly.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE Density, Duration and Real Estate: What Buyers Underwrite Across the Three Groups Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage 10 45% 8.0x Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) · XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) · +8 more Doors, lanes and seated trucks. Ten names in the set, 8 of them with a CY2027E estimate, at a middle multiple of 8.0x. Pricing in this group tracks operating ratio and lane balance, and the spread inside it runs from the top of the range to the bottom, so size alone does not settle where a carrier lands. Multi-modal integrated carrier networks 6 27% 7.5x United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) · GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) · +4 more Recurring gross profit, deep integration. Six names, 4 of them with a CY2027E estimate, at a middle multiple of 7.5x. Contract logistics and managed transportation sit here: net revenue retention and system integration create switching friction, and the market weighs that duration against the freight cycle underneath it. Adjacent models 6 27% 8.7x Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) · Ryder System, Inc. (R) · +4 more Assets, contracts and residual values. Six names, 5 of them with a CY2027E estimate, at a middle multiple of 8.7x, above the other two groups. Rail, fleet leasing, temperature-controlled warehousing and on-demand delivery are underwritten on land, power, lease duration and residuals as much as on tonnage.

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   SECTION 03

   03

   Divider introducing section three, public market valuation across the rated universe.

   Section three ranks all 22 approved names by valuation, with 17 of them carrying a CY2027E estimate. From here we build up the pricing evidence: the range, its drivers, and the situations it points to.

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   SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS A Forward Multiple Already Credits Growth, and the Top of the Range Still Holds It All 22 approved names ranked, 17 of them with a CY2027E estimate. 03 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

   The Two Ends of the Range Are Priced Far Apart, and Forward Estimates Do Not Close the Gap

   This slide ranks the 17 rated companies by CY2027E EV/EBITDA against a 7.7x sector median.

   We rank all 17 rated companies by CY2027E EV / EBITDA, and the two ends of that range sit far apart against a sector median of 7.7x. Forward estimates already build in expected growth, so a wide range that survives them is telling us something about earnings quality, not just growth timing. Tier zones on this page mark where the range splits at the rated set's own quartiles. So what: a forward multiple that still shows this much spread is a signal worth investigating company by company.

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Two Ends of the Range Are Priced Far Apart, and Forward Estimates Do Not Close the Gap EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 17 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 7.7x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (17 of 22 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 14.4x CORE · median 7.7x DISCOUNT · median 5.5x Sector median 7.7x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top holds the wider margins. The 4 names at the premium end carry a median of 14.4x on CY2027E EV / EBITDA; the 4 at the discount end sit at 5.5x. All 22 approved names are on the page, 17 of them with a CY2027E estimate. Forward pricing already credits growth. Because the lens is CY2027E EV / EBITDA, the forecast improvement is already in the denominator. A premium that survives that test is associated with earnings the market expects to hold through the cycle rather than with one recovering year. Asset mix travels with the range. The premium end mixes less-than-truckload networks, a rail franchise and temperature-controlled warehousing; the bottom of the range is weighted to dry van truckload and on-demand delivery. Owned density and qualification-gated capability sit alongside the higher multiples, and open spot exposure sits alongside the lower ones.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

   Profitability Separates the Two Ends: Names Above the 14% Margin Line Carry 11.7x Against 7.2x Below It

   This slide compares median CY2027E EV/EBITDA across revenue-growth and EBITDA-margin cohorts.

   Splitting the rated set by revenue growth, the slower-growing half trades at a higher median multiple than the faster-growing half in this data. Splitting the same set by EBITDA margin, names above the 14% margin line carry a median 11.7x against 7.2x below it, the widest cohort gap in this report. These are cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates, and they describe association, not causation. So what: margin, more than growth, is the driver a reader should track first.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Profitability Separates the Two Ends: Names Above the 14% Margin Line Carry 11.7x Against 7.2x Below It Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=9; slower n=8; higher-margin n=9; lower-margin n=8). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 6% · EBITDA-margin split at 14% Names Growing Below 6% Price Above Those Growing Faster Among the 17 names with a CY2027E estimate, the 8 growing below 6% carry a median of 9.3x against 6.9x for the 9 growing above it. That is an association within a single forward year, not a rule about growth, but it does say a plan sold on volume alone has little support in this pricing. Operating Ratio Is the Line This Pricing Tracks The governing narrative here is operating ratio on a fuel-neutral basis, and the more highly priced part of the set carries the wider margins. Work on yield, empty miles, weight per shipment and dock throughput is work on the line that sits alongside the top of the range. Contract Duration and Qualification Sit Alongside the Top of the Range Long-dated contract logistics agreements, temperature-controlled and pharmaceutical qualification and deep integration into customer order systems are switching-friction assets, and they cluster in the part of the set priced above the middle. Duration is the thing a forward multiple can credit that a spot-exposed book is less able to show. Asset Intensity Is a Choice That Shows up in the Range Maintenance capex, fleet age, deferred maintenance and used-equipment residuals are what buyers put underneath a headline multiple in this sector. Two businesses on the same figure are judged on the cash that survives the fleet cycle, which is why capital allocation belongs in the same conversation as margin.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP

    Higher Pricing Sits with Slower Growth Here; Faster Growth Mostly Sits Below the Middle

    This slide maps the rated set on EV/EBITDA versus revenue growth, cut at the sector medians.

    We cut the rated set on EV / EBITDA against the sector median of 7.7x and on revenue growth against the covered median of 6%, producing a four-box situation map. Higher pricing sits with slower growth in this cohort, and faster growth mostly sits below the middle of the range. These are observations on the data as recorded, not recommendations. So what: a reader can locate their own company on this map before deciding what question to ask next.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP Higher Pricing Sits with Slower Growth Here; Faster Growth Mostly Sits Below the Middle Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (7.7x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (6%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced up and Growing Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 2 names Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) · Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) and Saia, Inc. (SAIA) are the 2 names above 7.7x and above the middle growth rate of the covered set, both less-than-truckload networks with door count and yield behind them. It is the combination the market is paying up for, and only a small part of the set holds it. Priced up on Slower Growth Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 7 names United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) · Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) · XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) · +4 more Seven names price above the middle of the range while growing below the middle rate: parcel, rail, contract logistics, engineered-parts supply chain and temperature-controlled warehousing. The pricing here sits alongside margin level, contract duration and owned assets rather than tonnage growth. Growing Below the Middle of the Range Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 7 names Ryder System, Inc. (R) · Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) · Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) · +4 more Seven names are growing faster than the middle of the set while pricing below it. Growth has not been enough on its own here, so the question for an owner in this position is whether the growth arrives with retained accounts and margin, or with rented capacity. Below on Both Measures Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 1 names Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is the single name below the middle of the range on both measures, at 1% revenue growth. For a business in this position the work sits in mix, cost structure and holding the accounts that came with acquired volume.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY

    Margin Without Volume Sits at the Top of This Grid; Volume Without Margin Sits at the Bottom

    This slide places the 17 rated companies on a growth-versus-margin grid with a median multiple per quadrant.

    We plot all 17 rated companies on revenue growth against EBITDA margin, cut at the covered medians of 6% growth and 14% margin, with the median multiple shown for each quadrant. Margin without volume sits at the top of this grid, and volume without margin sits at the bottom, a pattern consistent with what we saw in the cohort splits. So what: an owner can use this grid to see which quadrant their own growth-margin profile falls into today.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Margin Without Volume Sits at the Top of This Grid; Volume Without Margin Sits at the Bottom Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2026E, y-axis) · 17 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (6% growth, 14% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=5; margin-only n=4; growth-only n=4; neither n=4). Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 0% 2% 5% 8% 10% 12% 10% 20% 30% 40% MARGIN ONLY median 14.2x BALANCED median 7.4x NEITHER median 8.2x GROWTH ONLY median 6.4x COLD FWRD UPS PKOH NSC TFII XPO GXO R WERN SAIA ARCB ODFL HUBG KNX MRTN LYFT x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2026E) HOW TO READ THIS The grid splits the 17 names with a CY2027E estimate at a 14% EBITDA margin and at the middle growth rate of the covered set. The 4 names clearing the margin bar alone sit at 14.2x, and the 4 clearing the growth bar alone sit at 6.4x. The 5 clearing both — Ryder System, Inc. (R), Saia, Inc. (SAIA), Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) and Marten Transport, Ltd. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 2 of 17 names clear it (ODFL, NSC).

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    03 · THE AGENDA

    Where a Company Sits in the Range Travels with Margin Durability and Contract Duration

    This slide frames the questions the valuation evidence raises for owners and acquirers.

    Where a company sits in this range travels with margin durability and contract duration, based on the cohort evidence in this section. We frame this page as the questions an owner or acquirer should work through next, not as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. So what: the data points to specific, answerable questions about margin and contract book, not a single target multiple.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Where a Company Sits in the Range Travels with Margin Durability and Contract Duration NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Defend the Operating Ratio Before Chasing Loads Across the 17 names with a CY2027E estimate, the higher multiples sit with the wider margins rather than with the faster top lines. Lane balance, empty miles, tender acceptance and yield per hundredweight are the levers that move that line, and they move in any cycle position. What changes the answer: A soft cycle in which contract rates lag spot and the margin line holds anyway. Duration and Qualification Sit Alongside the Premium End Long-dated contract logistics agreements, temperature-controlled and pharmaceutical qualification and deep integration into customer warehouse systems are what the more highly priced part of the set carries. Adding duration to the revenue mix is an operating move, not a market call. What changes the answer: Renewal cliffs clustering in one year, or open repricing arriving on a managed account. Decide What Asset Intensity Is Buying You The bottom of the range is weighted to dry van truckload and on-demand delivery, while the top mixes network density with owned real estate that has residual value underneath it. Build-versus-buy on terminals, trailers and pallet positions is where that choice actually gets made. What changes the answer: Used-equipment residuals turning, or a site in a power-constrained market becoming available. Customer Concentration Is a Pricing Question, Not Only a Risk Note A single account that also occupies a dedicated site or fleet can reprice a platform at renewal. Broadening the book and keeping open-book economics honest is the operating work that protects margin through bid season. What changes the answer: A routing guide loss on a core lane, or a top account moving to open repricing.

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    SECTION 04

    04

    Divider introducing section four, the precedent transaction record.

    Section four turns to what buyers actually paid for whole companies, from warehouse platforms to asset-based freight. The spread across the transactions we cover here is wide.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Paid for Whole Companies, from Warehouse Platforms to Asset-Based Freight Nine transactions on the page, and the spread between them is wide. 04 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    The Transaction Record Spans Warehouse Platforms and Asset-Based Freight, and the Spread Is Wide

    This slide walks through case studies from the disclosed precedent transactions, warehouse platforms through asset-based freight.

    We walk through select case studies from the disclosed transactions in our precedent list, spanning warehouse platforms to asset-based freight, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed. The spread across these deals is wide, and we read "why the deal happened" from the recorded evidence in each filing. These deal multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples elsewhere in this report, so we don't claim a spread between the two. So what: the transaction record shows buyers have paid up for footprint and integration, not simply for scale.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES The Transaction Record Spans Warehouse Platforms and Asset-Based Freight, and the Spread Is Wide 1 of 14 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 61 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 38 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Mar-2019 $1.9B Thoma Bravo Thoma Bravo's move on JD.com, Inc. shows sponsor appetite for asset-light logistics economics. EV / LTM revenue 10.5x EV / LTM EBITDA 8.4x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Thoma Bravo is a financial sponsor, and sponsors in this sector concentrate on asset-light models — brokerage, managed transportation, fulfilment and the systems around them — where recurring gross profit supports leverage. The transaction suggests the buyer was underwriting that economics rather than fleets, terminals or rolling stock. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The recorded terms are $1.9B, with 8.4x EBITDA and 10.5x revenue. The profit multiple sits inside the range of the asset-based transactions on this page, while the revenue multiple is a reminder that this sector reads profit multiples first and revenue multiples only as a check.

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    SECTION 05

    05

    Divider introducing section five, strategic implications for owners and acquirers.

    Section five turns to what's inside an owner's control: margin durability and contract duration. We close with what to work on next, and what evidence would change our read.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Margin Durability and Contract Duration Are Inside an Owner's Control What to work on next, and what evidence would change the read. 05 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    Margin Durability and Contract Duration Are the Levers Inside an Owner's Control

    This slide sets out the strategic questions on margin durability and contract duration for the next twelve months.

    Margin durability and contract duration are the levers this data puts inside an owner's control, whatever else is happening in the cycle. We frame this page as the questions this analysis puts on the table for the next twelve months, not as a set of recommendations. So what: these are the two variables a management team can actually move, and this report gives them a way to benchmark progress.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Margin Durability and Contract Duration Are the Levers Inside an Owner's Control NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Work the Margin Line and the Contract Book The top of the pricing range sits with names carrying wider margins and longer contracts rather than the fastest top lines. Operating ratio, yield, empty miles and net revenue retention are the levers that move that position, and they do not wait on the cycle. FOR ACQUIRERS Footprint That Closes a Lane or Modal Gap Has Cleared Higher Multiples In the transaction record, warehouse-led contract logistics and forwarding platforms were paid at the upper end of the recorded multiples, while mid-market asset-based freight cleared nearer the middle. Buyers paying for density should underwrite the cash that survives the fleet cycle, not the headline figure. FOR BOARDS Know Which Half of the Market the Company Sits in Before Setting Targets Of the 17 names with a CY2027E estimate, 14 sit above the middle of the range on one measure and below it on the other. Deciding which of margin, duration or growth the plan is built to deliver is more useful to management than a target multiple.

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    SECTION 06

    06

    Divider introducing section six, the comparables appendix and methodology.

    Section six closes with the full comparables universe, our methodology, and the source for every figure used in this report. It's the reference section for anyone who wants to trace a number back to its filing.

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 2)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier.

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.7x); amber marks below · 17 rated companies; 5 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 17 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. 18

    Everything on this page

    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 2) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.7x); amber marks below · 17 rated companies; 5 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 17 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥11.7x · median 14.4x · 4 companies Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ODFL Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $36.6B 16.4x 8% 34% 43 XPO Logistics, Inc. XPO Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $24.5B 14.4x 5% 17% 23 Americold Realty Trust, Inc. COLD Temperature-controlled warehouse networks with owned… $8.7B 14.4x 0% 23% 24 Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC Rail linehaul and rail-based intermodal networks $86.1B 13.9x 4% 44% 49 CORE — 6.9x–11.7x · median 7.7x · 9 companies Saia, Inc. SAIA Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $9.0B 11.7x 8% 19% 28 GXO Logistics, Inc. GXO Multi-modal integrated carrier networks $10.4B 9.9x 5% 7% 12 Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. PKOH Engineered-parts supply chain and vendor-managed… $1.3B 8.7x 4% 9% 13 TFI International Inc. TFII Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $13.3B 8.6x 5% 15% 22 United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS Multi-modal integrated carrier networks $103B 7.7x 4% 14% 18 Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. KNX Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $12.3B 7.4x 9% 16% 27 Hub Group, Inc. HUBG Multi-modal integrated carrier networks $2.2B 7.2x 8% 6% 16 Forward Air Corporation FWRD Multi-modal integrated carrier networks $2.5B 7.1x 1% 13% 15 ArcBest Corporation ARCB Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $3.2B 6.9x 8% 8% 17 DISCOUNT — <6.9x · median 5.5x · 4 companies Lyft, Inc. LYFT Adjacent: on-demand mobility and last-mile delivery… $5.2B 5.9x 13% 9% 23

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (2 OF 2)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This slide continues the comparables list from the prior page, completing the rated universe.

    This second page continues the same comparables list, grouped by the same valuation tiers and shaded against the 7.7x sector median. Together, the two pages carry all 17 rated companies on a consistent CY2027E EV / EBITDA basis. So what: a reader comparing any two names in this report can find both on these two pages, on the same basis.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (2 OF 2) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.7x); amber marks below · 17 rated companies; 5 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 17 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 DISCOUNT — CONTINUED — <6.9x · median 5.5x · 4 companies Ryder System, Inc. R Fleet leasing, dedicated fleets and outsourced supply… $17.6B 5.5x 6% 22% 29 Werner Enterprises, Inc. WERN Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $3.0B 5.4x 8% 12% 22 Marten Transport, Ltd. MRTN Truckload and less-than-truckload carriage $980M 5.3x 10% 14% 29

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide lists all precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.

    This page lists the precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed. A subset of these records carry data-quality flags, which we show as recorded in the filing rather than adjusting. So what: this is the underlying evidence behind the case studies in the earlier section, available for a reader to check line by line.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 14 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (52 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 61 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 38 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Feb-2024 GXO Logistics, Inc. → Wincanton plc n/a n/a 7.0x GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) completed the acquisition of Wincanton plc at 7.0x EBITDA. For a warehouse-led platform, that reads closer to asset-based freight pricing than to the upper end of the transactions recorded here. Sep-2023 GXO Logistics, Inc. → PFSweb, Inc. $142M n/a n/a GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) announced PFSweb, Inc. at a recorded value of $142M. The fit reads as order management and fulfilment capability added to a contract logistics network. Dec-2022 A.P. Møller — Mærsk A/S → LF Logistics Holdings Limited n/a n/a 16.4x A.P. Møller — Mærsk A/S announced LF Logistics Holdings Limited at 16.4x EBITDA. A liner group buying contract logistics is consistent with network completion, and the multiple is at the upper end of this record. Feb-2022 GXO Logistics, Inc. → Clipper Logistics plc n/a n/a 20.0x GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) announced Clipper Logistics plc at 20.0x EBITDA. Warehouse-led platforms carrying retail fulfilment contracts have changed hands well above the public set in these transactions. Feb-2022 ID Logistics Group SA → Kane Logistics, Inc. n/a 0.7x 8.8x ID Logistics Group SA announced Kane Logistics, Inc. at 8.8x EBITDA and 0.7x revenue. The revenue figure shows how little gross revenue says on its own here; the profit multiple is the one to read. Jul-2021 DP World Limited → Imperial Logistics Limited n/a n/a 6.1x DP World Limited announced Imperial Logistics Limited at 6.1x EBITDA, the bottom of the multiples recorded on this page. The logic reads as extending from ports into inland distribution. Jun-2021 Mullen Group Ltd. → Quad Logistics Services, LLC n/a n/a 8.0x Mullen Group Ltd. announced Quad Logistics Services, LLC at 8.0x EBITDA. Mid-market asset-based freight has changed hands near the middle of the public range. Apr-2021 DSV Panalpina A/S → Agility Global Integrated Logistics n/a n/a 16.3x DSV Panalpina A/S announced Agility Global Integrated Logistics at 16.3x EBITDA. Forwarding networks with global lane coverage priced at the upper end of these transactions. Mar-2019 Thoma Bravo → JD.com, Inc. $1.9B 10.5x 8.4x Thoma Bravo announced a $1.9B transaction involving JD.com, Inc. Financial sponsors in this sector have concentrated on asset-light models where recurring gross profit and low capital intensity support leverage.

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First.

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 14 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (52 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 61 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 38 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 21

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 14 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (52 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 61 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 38 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters May-2017 Hub Group → Estenson Logistics n/a n/a 6.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Feb-2015 Kinetsu World Express, Inc. → APL Logistics Ltd. n/a n/a 15.0x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jul-2014 XPO Logistics, Inc. → New Breed Holding Company n/a n/a 8.0x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Feb-2013 Algeco Scotsman → Target Logistics Management LLC n/a n/a 11.0x n/a n/a → Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. $0M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; financial target ev not meaningful, status defaulted announced.

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    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    This slide explains the report's sources, valuation basis, and data-quality exclusions.

    This page sets out how we built the report: the valuation basis, what we excluded and why, and where each underlying disclosure sits. Every figure elsewhere in this deck links back to the record it was taken from, and where no link exists, this appendix names the source and the basis on which we read it. So what: a reader can check any number in this report against its original filing before acting on it.

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 22 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (17 of 22 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Logistics and Supply Chain Services and it clears the coverage gate with 18 of 22 companies (82%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 18 of the 18 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 14 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 781 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (780) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

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    Across These 22 Names, the Top of the Pricing Range Travels with Margin Durability.

    Closing slide restating that margin durability sits with the top of the pricing range.

    Across these 22 names, the top of the pricing range travels with margin durability. The companion tables beside this deck carry the full universe and source index for any figure a client wants to trace.

    Everything on this page

    Across These 22 Names, the Top of the Pricing Range Travels with Margin Durability. NeuraCap AI — Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 23

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